Summary
I spent a few hours digging in to the data from my home state of Ohio, which is a bellwether for US presidential elections. Combined with data that the middle class is being gutted, I think we have the beginnings of a middle class revolt. The middle class is finally waking up to the reality that post-world war II America is gone, is not coming back and they need some significant political change to help.
The writing was on the wall
The Trump Coalition
- Hardcore Republicans like Newt Gingrich or Paul Ryan
- Single issue voters (e.g. Evangelicals against abortion)
- Bigots (racists/xenophobes/homophobes/misogynists)
- White, middle class workers
The system is failing the middle class
Because the election was so close, any thing that tipped the election is technically “the reason Trump won.” Voter ID laws, FBI investigation, media coverage, inaccurate polling, etc. are all part of it. However, there is an underlying trend that is going to cause even more chaos in the future if we don’t address it. Trump won Group 4 in key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan because they need to change the system that is not working for them. Some in group 4 stayed home but many switched away from the Democratic party.
Look at the differences between how votes were cast in 2012 vs. 2016 in Ohio.
- Union households: 60% supporting Obama to 42% supporting Clinton.
- People old enough to have gotten screwed in the workforce, aka 25-29 year olds 63% to 47% voting Democratic and 30-39 year olds from 55% to 43%.
- People who make less than $50k went from 59% to 52% support.
There are similar trends hold across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. And the trend is the key thing here. Maps that show how millenials would have overwhelmingly voted for Clinton do not capture the trend. If these trends continue, millennials will not be voting overwhelmingly Democratic in the Midwest.
2012 is on the left, 2016 on the right
The State of the Middle Class
I believe the middle class is finally waking up to the fact that they’ve been left behind.
Their local economies are not growing, they don’t have the skills to be globally competitive, and the institutions that were supposed to help them have failed. The military sends their children off to fight but doesn’t train them to do something useful so they end up unemployed. Local governments can’t keep their drinking water safe. State governments couldn’t keep predatory lenders and for profit colleges from exploiting their hope for a better life, so they are now buried in debt. The federal government can’t seem to punish wall street elites for destroying the economy and can’t seem to tax the wealthy to actually invest back in the economy.
Every institution that should help the middle class has failed to meaningfully help them. And unless we start to see some systemic changes to address these trends, I do think the middle class will be increasingly frustrated and will be willing to take increasingly drastic measures. Trump is just the beginning.
The Qualitative Perspective
Read “What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class”
It is a far better summary than I could write. Some choice quotes:
One little-known element of that gap is that the white working class (WWC) resents professionals but admires the rich. Class migrants (white-collar professionals born to blue-collar families) report that “professional people were generally suspect” and that managers are college kids “who don’t know shit about how to do anything but are full of ideas about how I have to do my job,” said Alfred Lubrano in Limbo.
Manly dignity is a big deal for most men. So is breadwinner status: Many still measure masculinity by the size of a paycheck. White working-class men’s wages hit the skids in the 1970s and took another body blow during the Great Recession. Look, I wish manliness worked differently. But most men, like most women, seek to fulfill the ideals they’ve grown up with. For many blue-collar men, all they’re asking for is basic human dignity (male varietal). Trump promises to deliver it.
“The thing that really gets me is that Democrats try to offer policies (paid sick leave! minimum wage!) that would help the working class,” a friend just wrote me. A few days’ paid leave ain’t gonna support a family. Neither is minimum wage. WWC men aren’t interested in working at McDonald’s for $15 per hour instead of $9.50. What they want is what my father-in-law had: steady, stable, full-time jobs that deliver a solid middle-class life to the 75% of Americans who don’t have a college degree. Trump promises that. I doubt he’ll deliver, but at least he understands what they need.
“The white working class is just so stupid. Don’t they realize Republicans just use them every four years, and then screw them?” I have heard some version of this over and over again, and it’s actually a sentiment the WWC agrees with, which is why they rejected the Republican establishment this year. But to them, the Democrats are no better.
Important aside: Emboldened Bigots
There’s a lot of fear and anger from people who are worried about Trump’s bigotry. I think this is all very real and very understandable. But we should separate our own fears and values from the fears and values of those who voted for him. I don’t believe Trump won the swing states JUST because he convinced the bigots to vote for him. Maybe they turned out in higher numbers this time, though I have yet to see that data.
Nor do I think all Trump supporters are bigots — they recognize what he says and made a hard tradeoff. I grew up with many of these people in West Carrollton, Ohio where the median household income is $40k/yr. In my opinion, Trump convinced a lot of these good people to vote for him DESPITE their needing to vote alongside racists, xenophobes, misogynists, and homophobes. Don’t forget that these same places voted for a Black president, Iowa was one of the first states to recognize gay marriage, and 2/3 of people in Ohio believe you shouldn’t defund Planned Parenthood.
We are going to have to deal with the consequences of racists, homophobes, anti-Semites, xenophobes, and misogynists feeling emboldened. The silver lining may be these people were already out there and it’s better that we deal with them, rather than letting them lurk in the shadows.
Resources/Data
- 2012 results in Ohio: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/
- 2016 results in Ohio: http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/ohio/president
- US Exit Polls: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html
- Planned Parenthood Polls: https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/files/9514/5013/2839/Polling_Roundup.pdf
- Pew Report on the Middle Class losing ground: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/
- Pew Report on Shrinking Middle Class: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/11/americas-shrinking-middle-class-a-close-look-at-changes-within-metropolitan-areas/
- Middle Class Squeeze: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle-class_squeeze
- Income Inequality in the US: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_inequality_in_the_United_States
- The Brexit Possibility: http://stratechery.com/2016/the-brexit-possibility/
- Flint Water Crisis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flint_water_crisis
- Student Debt Crisis: http://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/a-crisis-in-student-loans-how-changes-in-the-characteristics-of-borrowers-and-in-the-institutions-they-attended-contributed-to-rising-loan-defaults/#recent/
- Veteran Unemployment: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/11/11/recent-veterans-are-still-experiencing-double-digit-unemployment/
- What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class: https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class
Avichal Garg 
There is a serious misunderstanding being propagated with misidentifying who it is we are actually talking about. This is NOT the “middle class” that is being disenfranchised and shrinking. It is the skilled working class. The true middle class, as it was understood in the 19th Century are doing quite well. Our better educated, professional class, the true “middle ” class, the “bourgeoisie” between the workers and the capitalist (rich enough to live off of non-employment income) classes, are doing extremely well. But those who have only a modest education and rely “on the sweat of their brow”, even in highly skilled trades is loosing ground. Calling them the “middle class” distorts the picture of who they really are and why they have been losing ground for several decades as increased productivity has reduced the demand for their labor and thus reduced their share of GDP.
Strange how everyone,including the media, constantly boasted of U.S. prosperity. The only problem with that is they never identify the period in which this prosperity happened. Post WW2? Maybe, yes, jobs were aplenty, economy was booming. But for who? White middle class and the very rich 1%. Did the black population “prosper” post WW2? Well, no, and they represented 15% of the population, fully 35 million+ people. Add the perpetually poor and intellectually-challenged to the equation and you get 25% of the population that did not enjoy this short-lived prosperity. And, back to “prosperity”, what other age of prosperity did the U.S. population enjoy? Well, the answer is simple : Never. Same in Canada but slightly better as we had no black minorities. We preferred torturing our native peoples. Old-time prosperity in the U.S., is a myth. Happened piecemeal from 1945 to 1970 only. Europe, with its post-war rebuilding and lack of natural resources, fared much better. It was called, still is, socialism which btw was as corrupt as capitalism, but which left a few crumbs for the embattled middle class. Not so for trickle-down economics as mentioned in the above well-done piece.
Trump will be an unmitigated disaster. Him a Wall Street foe? Make me laugh. He has thrived from Wall Street, has been financed by Wall Street and taught how to effect successful bankruptcies by those same people, to stiff employees, suppliers, pension funds. All aided by added Chinese financing. The man is pure hyperbolic buffoon. He knows nothing of politics and economics and has probably been a money laundering front from the beginning. I don’t believe very much in God, but if there is one, God help the U.S.
In the New Republic, members enjoy resuming the restoration of the Constitutional republic from JFK’s point of interruption, can see for miles and miles, and enjoy Liberty in building out properties and the local means of production, with the capability to sow, nurture, grow, harvest, store, cook, engineer, design, program, automate, construct, process, raise, teach, hunt, defend, provide, debate, organize, compose, dance, celebrate, and sustain.
I’m Charles Fuller, and I approve this message, from the beginning.
i really encourage you to look at the American National Elections Study – i think you will find the data interesting. The voters seem to have lashed out in ignorance and rage, and they do not yet understand they have punished themselves. If you think they were angry last week, just wait until they realize they were conned. Would anyone be surprised when Trump starts talking about the need for a state of emergency to fix the problems. We have to hope we have the opportunity to remove this sociopath in the future, but we may not get one.